Sunday, May 11, 2008

Pakistan: An adulterated second coming

Mir Adnan Aziz
The Frontier Post

Mir Adnan Aziz Alexander Hamilton, eminent lawyer and most influential of the United States founding fathers, famously said: ' The independence of judges once destroyed, the constitution is gone and it is a dead letter. It is a vapor which the breath of a faction in a moment may dissipate.'

Justifying his November 3 action, President Musharraf had blamed the judges of derailing democracy, judicial activism and spreading anarchy. Had the justices been rubber stamps, validating the Presidential decapitation of the Constitution, this could have been true. The fact that they were poised to do otherwise, earned them the ire of a not too magnanimous individual. Denial of justice is historically the instrument of tyrants and dictators.

The proclamation of emergency was portrayed as not being from a President but rather a Chief of Army Staff. The impression given was that he enjoyed total support of the army top brass and the institution itself. The fact that orders were implemented was not charisma, leadership, statesmanship or infatuation for the man; it was rather a trait ingrained and embedded in the military psyche - discipline. Gen Kiany's disengagement blitz from politics and civilian matters was and is a feat the nation is thankful for. It also is a testament to the belief that the army as an institution truly believed that they had been forced into a morass, it's image bruised and battered as never before.

Apart from its frequent forays into civilian governance, the army in principle (albeit these last years as a forced servile stooge) has set aside Washington's unsolicited counsel on matters of national import. Gen Zia stood up to both Russia and the US when the two had arrived at an Afghan settlement seen detrimental to our own national interest.

Were we also not under tremendous pressure with threats and desperate pleas combined to prevent a nuclear Pakistan? The fact that we withstood that pressure speaks volumes for the then civilian (oft maligned) and military leadership. We also had a cacophony of presidential telephone calls to the one of a Deputy Secretary of State which saw our spineless post 9/11capitulation.

Unfortunately we made a convenient scapegoat and chose to incarcerate the very architect of a nuclear Pakistan, ostensibly for his own good! The winds of change and freedom should benefit Dr. A Q Khan too, and given his frail health, at the soonest. It was, tragically, for the first time in these last eight years that we became mindless American proxies; totally and blindly forsaking our own to protect alien interests.

Alexander Hamilton paraphrased this capitulation as: A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one.... Of those men who have overturned the liberties of republics, the greatest number has begun their career by paying an obsequious court to the people, commencing demagogues and ending tyrants.

The doing away of the 'unwanted judges' was a criminal travesty of justice visible to all. Out of the public eye, other steps were under way (tragically still are) to complete the subversion of the judiciary. With the judges, lawyers and media bringing the case to the nation, the people gave as clear a verdict as any jury could pronounce. The overwhelming majority saw the President guilty on yet another count.

The lawyers were never given a privileged position to change our judicial system, or spread 'anarchy'. It was the blatantly audacious act of the President (with American approval) that was unacceptable to all – the lawyers, judges, media, civil society and intelligentsia and above all, the people.

It precipitated public anger into a massively popular movement for restoration of the judges and doing away with remote controlled governance. Sandra Day O'Connor recently retired US Supreme Court judge, aptly commented, 'Statutes and constitutions do not protect judicial independence - people do.' In 1787, Hamilton wrote in the Federalist Papers, ' where powers of the government are properly separated, the judiciary poses the least threat to constitutional rights and has no physical force of its own'.

'Although liberty has nothing to fear from judiciary alone', he warned, 'it has everything to fear from its union with other parts of government. A truly independent judiciary is a safeguard of the constitution; a non-independent one a grave threat'.

Constitutional rights are always guarded through strict interpretation of law and adherence to judicial practice. This is how courts form the strongest barrier against tyranny and injustice. It is imperative that those elected differentiate between an independent judiciary and a compromised one. A society devoid of an independent, assertive and just judicial system, lapses into frustration and fear. With no forum for redressal, fear and abrogation of rights suppress individual inquiry. A shackled judicial system, a must for unjust governance, is thought to enable control of the people. It is also ostensibly done under the guise of providing protection to the very same dispossessed of justice.

The emerging scenario regarding the restoration of judges has been marred with back-pedalling and created uncertainties. The formation of a committee is a blatant ploy to further muddy the already opaque waters. What is being reportedly offered is a totally adulterated second coming of the Chief Justice.

The Pakistan 'Peoples' Party cannot afford to go against the judges' restoration on merit as it could prove to be politically devastating for them. The adopted policy therefore is, to restore them but after drastically weakening their powers and limiting the CJ's tenure. If done, history will judge this as an act of judicial subversion and all those party to it as betrayers of the people.

It is ironic that a multitude got lightening relief through the NRO. Thousands of criminal and civil cases, mostly years old, were scrutinized, recommended and summarily quashed with ruthless efficiency. The fact that individuals charged with criminal atrocities, looting and plundering got away scot-free in record time speaks volumes about our standards of moralities.

Today the judges are being treated as perpetrators of anarchy or would be saboteurs. A promised righting of a proved wrong has been transformed into an issue - all this to the hackneyed tune of an unremorseful Pied Piper. His followers would be wiser if they could only but understand where he would eventually lead them all to.

NWFP Information Minister, Sardar Hussain Babak, has written to his federal counterpart about the stereotyping of Pakhtoons. The print and electronic media plays a great part in shaping perceptions. A frivolous portrayal plays negatively, as it rightly should, on the sensitivities of a great race. As for American discomfort at peace negotiations with the Taliban, their comfort to date has translated into bloody mayhem for us. Their use of brutal force has failed to pay dividends and has proved to be a total disaster. They will not lose face (as the Chinese say) by giving peace a chance themselves.

President Bush has also 'rebuffed' his commanders' proposal to expand the war to our tribal areas. For once in his lame-duck period, sanity has seemingly prevailed. One would otherwise expect of him, knowing him as we do now, donning his top-gun garb, cruise missiles and Daisy Cutters blazing - a 'mission unaccomplished' president at his last stand.

(miradnanaziz@gmail.com)

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Powerless Pakistan

Mir Adnan Aziz
The News

Coal has always been a dirty four-letter word in our power vocabulary. Reluctantly and only recently, have the policy makers been forced to look at indigenous coal as a serious power generation option. Contrary to popular perception, coal not oil is the single largest source of global energy.

Of late gas fired power generation is also being promoted in tandem with oil. Ironically the same was not done when we had plentiful gas reserves. Now that we might have to import it, the policy makers have suddenly woken up anew to its benefits. Share of gas in the IPP's energy generation has actually fallen since 2004 from 75% to 56% due to shortages.

Pakistan's rivers have (or had) the potential for generating 40, 0000 MW of cheap hydel power. Presently we are facing a severe water shortage due to the effects of global warming and the construction of up stream dams like Baghliar and Kishan Ganga by India in violation of the Indus Water Treaty. It is ironically now that we hear the aggressive hyperbole advocating construction of mega dams for hydel power generation. Apart from being rife with political connotations does our recent telemetry of the Indus River System support these grandiose schemes? Likewise with the ever-spiraling oil prices, relying on indigenous coal is the only medium to long-term solution to our energy and economic woes.

The world generates 38% of its power from coal. Germany, USA, UK, India and China generate more than 50% of their electric power from coal. Australia, Poland and South Africa are dependent upon coal for more than 80% of their energy needs. Indonesia generates 93 per cent of its electricity from coal. Pakistan with coal deposits of 185 billion tons, astoundingly, does not generate even 1% of its electricity from coal.

The only coal based power generation plant of any significance in the country (with an installed capacity of 150 MW) is Lakhra Power. For most of its long chequered history, the plant has either been closed or has operated at less than 50% capacity utilization.

Thar Coal Field in Sindh, with Lignite–B (Brown Coal) deposits of 175 billion tons makes up for 94% of our total coal reserves. It is spread over an area of 9100 square kilometers in Tharparkar. Only 350 square kilometers, 3.8 % of this vast coalfield has been geologically investigated which verified deposits of 12 billion tons. This itself is sufficient to generate more than 40,000 MW electricity for decades to come. Lignite-B is hazardous to stack and does not lend itself to easy transportation. Such deposits, worldwide, are considered ideal for mine mouth power generation.

It was in 2001 that the Thar Coal Task Force was formed, headed by President Musharraf himself. Rheinbraun of Germany, specializing in Brown Coal mining to support mine mouth power generation was engaged. They were supposed to carry out a Thar mining bankable feasibility to support a Power Plant of 1000 MW capacity. The fate of this report on which up front tariff for coal based power generation was to be based, remains a mystery. Without a credible Bankable Feasibility no international investor of merit will show interest in Thar coal.

In the absence of a credible Power Policy and the aftermath of the Hubco tariff fiasco; international power generation companies were wary of doing business with Pakistan. The only country willing to help was China. Lt Gen Ghulam Ahmed (may his soul rest in peace) the then COS to President Musharraf was instrumental in spear-heading (behind the scene) the Thar initiative and engaging the Chinese at the highest level.

With a request to the Chinese Prime Minister himself, the response was immediate. Within no time, the head of the Shenhua Energy Group, the largest coal mining state-owned enterprise in Mainland China and the second largest in the world, arrived in Pakistan. He was personally heading a team to evaluate Thar Coal Field's potential for power generation.

Shenhua owns and operates coal based mine mouth power generation assets of over 10,000 MW in Mainland China. The Group Chairman enjoys the status of a Vice Minister and had been personally instructed by the Chinese Premier to do everything possible to help Pakistan's Coal Power Generation. This visit commenced with signing of a letter of intent.

Within months an MOU was signed between Shenhua and the Sindh Government whereby the former agreed to incrementally set up a 900 MW mine mouth coal fired power plant initially on a Build Own & Operate (BOO) basis. The Chinese also undertook, at their own expense, to first establish a Thar mining feasibility by carrying out a detailed geological investigation of a coal block allotted to them. This would then form the basis of an integrated mining and power generation feasibility and viable tariff negotiations. The entire project was to be financed by the Chinese themselves; all they wanted was a fair and viable tariff.

It was then that the usual detractors came into play. WAPDA insisted that the Chinese build the Thar/national grid power transmission at their own expense. The Ministry of Water and Power balked at providing adequate water supply at site. To complicate matters further the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources started lobbying for federal control of the Thar Coal Resource itself. The Pakistan Mineral Development Corporation started putting down strip mining and came up with alternate suggestions like In-Situ Gasification of Thar Coal; at best a commercially un-proven nascent technology. These were some of the many convenient impediments that started cropping up ever so aggressively to sabotage this initiative of national import.

Immediately after signing the MOU, more than 150 Chinese arrived to carry out detailed geological investigations. Their coal drilling rigs, sampling equipment and machinery arrived at Karachi port as temporary imports (exempt from taxes as they would be re-exported after completion of the project). Despite earlier assurances, Pakistan Customs refused clearance till import duties and taxes were paid. Mr Shaukat Aziz, our 'economic czar' and the then Finance Minister was not exactly helpful in the situation. An otherwise gladiatorial General Musharraf personally heading the Thar Task Force seemed powerless as ultimately the Shenhua fiasco proved. The clearance issue was only resolved when the Chinese displeasure was conveyed to the very top through our then ambassador to Beijing, Riaz Khokhar.

Working round the clock, the Chinese carried out the technical and commercial evaluation in record time. Shenhua was ready and more than eager to build the integrated mining and power generation complex at a guaranteed power tariff of 5.75cents/kWH. Negotiations started between Shenhua and the Private Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB) and later with NEPRA ended in a stalemate as NEPRA in its own wisdom refused to go above 5.34 cents.

In the mean time a newly elected Government took over in Sindh. The Thar Task Force was no longer in charge. The new Sindh Government having other priorities, the Thar Coal Initiative literally came to a grinding halt.

For more than two years Shenhua desperately tried to negotiate a reasonable tariff with the 'power barons' but in vain. Negotiations were deliberately sabotaged by interest groups who viewed coal generation as an infringement on their exclusive domain.

A new but highly flawed power policy called Power Policy 2002 was implemented by the incumbent government in 2003. An utter failure, not a single megawatt was added to the national grid under this policy in the last about nine years. The corner stone of this policy was stripping WAPDA of its self-power generation mandate. The flawed privatization of KESC too was a fallout of this policy. The list of failure and anomalies is too long to pen here.

It also put paid to all hopes that Shenhua might have had to set up the Thar Coal Power Plant. In terms of this Policy the special dispensation allowed to Shenhua in that they were specially invited and given 52 square miles in the Thar Coal field to set up mine mouth generation became invalid. PM Shaukat Aziz had the effrontery to point this out to the Chinese in a televised press conference. Shenhua Group was told to stand in line like everyone else and take part in competitive bidding for setting up a coal based power plant in Thar as and when the Government got around inviting such bids.

The Shenhua Group packed up and left. With them went all hopes of Thar coal based power generation. Nine years later the Federal Government has yet to come up with an up-front acceptable power tariff for coal. Meanwhile the costs have escalated and even 9 cents is no longer viable. The minimum up front coal tariff recently demanded by the Sindh Government is 11 cents.

In its profound wisdom the Federal Government has recently decided to delink Thar Coal Mining and Power Generation and has formed Thar Coal Mining Company. God help us all! Instead of starting from scratch Shenhua should be persuaded to come back with a workable tariff offered to them. As for their going back in the first place, needless to say, no heads will roll in a power-less Pakistan.

(miradnanaziz@gmail.com)

Of phantoms and anarchists

Mir Adnan Aziz
The Frontier Post


Violence as a way of achieving justice is both impractical and immoral. It is impractical because it is a descending spiral ending in destruction for all. It is immoral because it seeks to humiliate the opponent rather than win his understanding; it seeks to annihilate rather than to convert. - Martin Luther King.


Time dulls both memory and pain - but then there are times which scar one for life. They engrave a lasting impression and cause so much pain that even the passage of years fail to act as a balm. Events like the Lal Masjid operation are more painful than numerous others which were equally tragic. It is however what we see unfold before our very own eyes that tends to effect us more profoundly.

The horrors of days like May 12 and April 9 leave gruesome images seared indelibly in our collective consciousness. The marauding gunmen and those dead or dying are etched in our memories. Also never to be forgotten is the inexplicably absent state apparatus thus leaving the people at the mercy of those sans remorse.

Horrific acts like these create a culture of death, terror, and violence. Their effects and consequences remain ingrained in the nation's collective memory and above all in the psyche and body of the people themselves.

In the previous regime's tenure the people at large showed extreme restraint and patience. This when living under a cruel, arbitrary regime governed by elite above the law. Day or night, violence and fear stalked us like a shadow. The helplessness was further strengthened by a haunting belief that, if effected, there was no meaningful avenue or responsive authority for redressal of the same.

Our society was facing two fatal deficits in these last years. These were: inability to provide an effective check on power holders, making political power absolute and above the law; and an alienating political process that was not emancipatory but instead legitimized the disempowerment of ordinary people and state institutions.

The President departing on yet another foreign junket, acting as a father figure admonishing an errant child, asked the lawyers not to spread anarchy. During these long years we were endlessly lectured and sermonized on the virtues of 'Pakistan first', writ of the state and the evils of violence. Guiding principles otherwise, they sounded like fallacious clichés from sycophants themselves above the law.

When the law is made by those without legal and moral authority and when made is not equally applied; when it takes away an innocent man's life, injures him or destroys his property and when it sets one at a disadvantage and not another; is this law truly compatible with a free, self-governing society? Is not selective morality and convenient moral outrages extremely repugnant and obscene?

During these tumultuous last years we also became a society mutilated and brutalized, more so those who opposed our Caudillo's policies. The video clips of brutal state power we have seen in these last days are as chilling as they are repulsively shocking. The rule of law was replaced by a rule of power perpetuation at any cost. It was violence devoid of any political ideology. Armed gunmen appeared in the blink of an eye, wreaking havoc by murdering, pillaging, burning, and then disappearing like phantoms, 'unable to be traced'.

That all but the state knew who was doing what on whose behest only highlighted the forced 'visual deprivation' of the powers to be. The state, criminally negligent (by design), totally abandoned its citizens to be mowed down mercilessly. Far more reprehensible than the evil of the violent was the grotesquely hideous face of impotent civil authority. By acting as an immobile entity it became an all too willing accomplice in these gross acts of outrage.

This vitriolic campaign of political violence, intimidation and repression all but destroyed our societal fabric. To retain power in the face of increasing opposition, President Musharraf subverted the democratic process, independence of judiciary, freedom of press and the professionalism of the army.

In his single-minded pursuit of fulfilling America's wishes and perpetuating his power he deliberately stoked societal discord, polarization and political intolerance. In doing so he brought mayhem and economic destitution to the country. Seemingly, in spite of being rejected, he is still brazenly at his old game – that not being bridge is all too evident. Can a parallel not be drawn with Yeats who once wrote: "I took satisfaction in certain public disasters, felt sort of ecstasy at the contemplation of ruin".

Why are we surprised at the savagery of May 12, April 9 and all other such days? They had to happen. All symptoms were recognizable, the components definable. Long-standing grievances and inequities were all too familiar, been left to fester on their own or manipulated by the strong as a means of victimizing the weak. What we had was a nation with guns pointed at their temples in a fatal game of Russian roulette.

The emergence of the bizarre concept of political fiefdoms and domains has deepened the created societal cleavages. It has also, according to a predominant general perception, reinforced the irrational and immoral killing of innocents and the victimization of the people This intolerant drive, like the previous regime's oppressive state brutality generated the most tragic and futile momentum towards an orgy of violence.

What further compounds the pain is the fact that the state has yet to administer any form of justice for the horrific crimes committed. Have we totally become a society where criminal activity goes unpunished and legal redress is not available for illegal harm? We witnessed a total breakdown of the system in these last years with perpetrators of violence operating with impunity fostered by total unaccountability.

It was precisely these reasons of adversity, pain, violence and victimization that the people gave their unanimous verdict. In doing so they demanded a paradigm shift in policy for the restoration of human values that had been brutally subverted. The vote of the people was a cry of help, a prayer for deliverance from the perpetual violence and fear that had their lives in a fatal unrelenting stranglehold.


For the new government to function well and earn the people's trust and respect, it first needs to heal wounds by prosecuting the perpetrators of violence. The people yearn for a just and accountable system of governance assuring political stability and economic recovery. They long for a society in which they can freely exercise their democratic rights with the state acting as a facilitator and protector of these rights.

Each people at some point in history are threatened by great social upheaval. It is usually an accumulation of events big and small. These when manipulated or seen and ignored, become a festering amalgam of injustices that erupt at some later moment - a delayed consequence of history.

Whether the nation plunges into bloodshed and chaos again or begins anew depends on the elected leadership. It is also a test for their political imagination and statesmanship to deal with this delayed consequence of history that has caught up with their present times.

(
miradnanaziz@gmail.com)